"Are
You Experienced", by Isaac Cheifetz, Minneapolis Star Tribune,
June 20, 2005
"The true joy in life is being a force of nature,
rather than complaining that the world will not devote itself to
making you happy" - George Bernard Shaw
More than five years have passed since the dot-com bubble burst
in April 2000. Most industries have stabilized and even begun to
prosper, demonstrating fundamental vigor.
But there is less excitement in the air. The sense of limitless
possibilities (i.e., irrational exuberance) is gone, much like the
1970s, a difficult decade for business that followed the "Go-Go"
stock market of the 1960s. In football terms, companies are
advancing the ball through "three yards and a cloud of dust," rather
than throwing deep for touchdowns.
Companies are buying technology again, after a drought of several
years. But the IT industry is more mature now, and is unlikely any
time soon to regain the growth rates of the 1990s.
The history of the automobile industry holds lessons in this
regard; there have been few new manufacturers in the past 50 years.
Yet companies such as McDonald's and UPS, their business models
dependent on the internal combustion engine, grew into Fortune 500
giants during this period.
Similarly, there will be great new companies in the IT world, but
they will probably not take the same form -- hardware, software,
custom development -- as they did for the past 20 years.
The implications for careers are significant. The 17-year
economic boom that lasted from 1984 to 2000 was the longest in U.S.
history, and spans the majority of most people's careers.
"A rising tide lifts all boats," as John F. Kennedy said. We also
became accustomed to having the wind at our backs, making us seem
even faster than our natural abilities allowed. Adjusting to rowing
against the current, rather than with it, is a challenge.
How are executives who rode the roller coaster of the 1990s
responding to these realities? Most first-rate people I know are
doing challenging work at quality companies.
But beneath the surface, some people are processing change well,
and some are not. Let's consider two representative executives,
Danny Denial and Resilient Ron.
Danny Denial
There aren't many true believers in the dot-com dream in
positions of power these days, though some wistfully hold out hope
that the "Tech Summer" will come back.
However, too many executives who attempted to hit home runs
during the dot-com era retain emotional scar tissue. Call it "Mark
Cuban envy."
Cuban, best known as TV's "The Benefactor" and owner of the NBA
Dallas Mavericks, was the founder of Internet radio pioneer
Broadcast.com, which he sold to Yahoo in 1999. A pragmatic
visionary, Cuban protected the $2 billion in Yahoo stock he received
through sophisticated -- and entirely legal -- financial hedging
strategies.
There is a mild air of bitterness and despondency around the
not-so-fortunate folks, and that's a shame.
Statements such as, "We couldn't find investors to sustain our
path to profitability," or "we weren't able to have our IPO before
the NASDAQ tanked" are not useful. You should be able to give a
clear, coherent explanation, to yourself and to others, as to why
the company failed: i.e., a faulty business model or poor execution.
Many venture capitalists advocate investing in startups led by
executives who failed before, on the theory that they won't make the
same mistakes again. But this assumes they possess the
self-awareness to face up to what is, rather than what they wish had
been.
Resilient Ron
What qualities define the executive who has been toughened,
rather than scarred by his "adventures"?
• Perspective -- Gratitude, humor and playfulness are
powerful elements of durability, invaluable for surviving and
thriving in tough times. We remain the wealthiest society in
recorded history; boom or no boom, opportunity abounds.
• Integrity -- Intellectual integrity is absolutely
essential in order to learn from experience. Emotional and moral
integrity are highly desirable; most, though not all, leaders of
industry who lack them eventually crash and burn.
• Self-knowledge -- Many people think they are
entrepreneurs, just as many think they could write a novel. The real
test is doing it, even in the face of increased odds. As the saying
goes: "Do or do not; there is no try."
• Focus on value -- Concentrate on customer and
shareholder value, rather than "liquidity events," and your wealth
will take care of itself. And aim for what the market wants now, not
what you became accustomed to selling it in the past. Are you
willing to change and grow based on lessons learned by industry?
If none of this cheers you up, then consider that "life is
unfair," as JFK said on another occasion, though he was one of our
most optimistic presidents.