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"Are You Experienced", by Isaac Cheifetz, Minneapolis Star Tribune, June 20, 2005

"The true joy in life is being a force of nature, rather than complaining that the world will not devote itself to making you happy" - George Bernard Shaw

More than five years have passed since the dot-com bubble burst in April 2000. Most industries have stabilized and even begun to prosper, demonstrating fundamental vigor.

But there is less excitement in the air. The sense of limitless possibilities (i.e., irrational exuberance) is gone, much like the 1970s, a difficult decade for business that followed the "Go-Go" stock market of the 1960s. In football terms, companies are advancing the ball through "three yards and a cloud of dust," rather than throwing deep for touchdowns.

Companies are buying technology again, after a drought of several years. But the IT industry is more mature now, and is unlikely any time soon to regain the growth rates of the 1990s.

The history of the automobile industry holds lessons in this regard; there have been few new manufacturers in the past 50 years. Yet companies such as McDonald's and UPS, their business models dependent on the internal combustion engine, grew into Fortune 500 giants during this period.

Similarly, there will be great new companies in the IT world, but they will probably not take the same form -- hardware, software, custom development -- as they did for the past 20 years.

The implications for careers are significant. The 17-year economic boom that lasted from 1984 to 2000 was the longest in U.S. history, and spans the majority of most people's careers.

"A rising tide lifts all boats," as John F. Kennedy said. We also became accustomed to having the wind at our backs, making us seem even faster than our natural abilities allowed. Adjusting to rowing against the current, rather than with it, is a challenge.

How are executives who rode the roller coaster of the 1990s responding to these realities? Most first-rate people I know are doing challenging work at quality companies.

But beneath the surface, some people are processing change well, and some are not. Let's consider two representative executives, Danny Denial and Resilient Ron.

Danny Denial

There aren't many true believers in the dot-com dream in positions of power these days, though some wistfully hold out hope that the "Tech Summer" will come back.

However, too many executives who attempted to hit home runs during the dot-com era retain emotional scar tissue. Call it "Mark Cuban envy."

Cuban, best known as TV's "The Benefactor" and owner of the NBA Dallas Mavericks, was the founder of Internet radio pioneer Broadcast.com, which he sold to Yahoo in 1999. A pragmatic visionary, Cuban protected the $2 billion in Yahoo stock he received through sophisticated -- and entirely legal -- financial hedging strategies.

There is a mild air of bitterness and despondency around the not-so-fortunate folks, and that's a shame.

Statements such as, "We couldn't find investors to sustain our path to profitability," or "we weren't able to have our IPO before the NASDAQ tanked" are not useful. You should be able to give a clear, coherent explanation, to yourself and to others, as to why the company failed: i.e., a faulty business model or poor execution.

Many venture capitalists advocate investing in startups led by executives who failed before, on the theory that they won't make the same mistakes again. But this assumes they possess the self-awareness to face up to what is, rather than what they wish had been.

Resilient Ron

What qualities define the executive who has been toughened, rather than scarred by his "adventures"?

Perspective -- Gratitude, humor and playfulness are powerful elements of durability, invaluable for surviving and thriving in tough times. We remain the wealthiest society in recorded history; boom or no boom, opportunity abounds.

Integrity -- Intellectual integrity is absolutely essential in order to learn from experience. Emotional and moral integrity are highly desirable; most, though not all, leaders of industry who lack them eventually crash and burn.

Self-knowledge -- Many people think they are entrepreneurs, just as many think they could write a novel. The real test is doing it, even in the face of increased odds. As the saying goes: "Do or do not; there is no try."

Focus on value -- Concentrate on customer and shareholder value, rather than "liquidity events," and your wealth will take care of itself. And aim for what the market wants now, not what you became accustomed to selling it in the past. Are you willing to change and grow based on lessons learned by industry?

If none of this cheers you up, then consider that "life is unfair," as JFK said on another occasion, though he was one of our most optimistic presidents.

 

Read Articles - The Commerce Chain, Isaac's monthly column on Business and Technology Trends, in the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

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